Middle-East: War Is at Hand, What Is Next?

For four months now, since the unnatural death of the Iranian President, Raisi, in late May, I’ve been sounding the alarm on the imminence and inexorability of war. A war that would start in the Middle-East and end with a Russo-Western confrontation—a contingency war to ensure the actualization of the latter eventuality; given that “Operation Zelensky the Clown” has turned into a complete failure. Make no mistake! Every maneuver of such scale on the geopolitical board revolves around Russia [emphasis added].

 

 True, I perceive everything through the West-Russia prism. It isn’t due to lack of empathy or total indifference to the grave suffering of the multitudes; but because one cannot possibly see the truth about everything that transpires on the international stage unless one looks through that prism. So, now that the Israeli-Hezbollah war is already afoot and the possibility of more regional escalation looms, What’s next?

 

 

Here are three highly probable scenarios for how the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict can unfold…

 

But before exploring each of these scenarios, let us set the fundamental tenets upon which they are built. 

 

First, what is Netanyahu’s primarily objective(s) in this military escapade? As I have stated earlier in “Trump’s Assassination Attempt, Netanyahu U.S. Visit, and Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony: Destroying the Possibility of Peace,” the primary objective—rather necessity, really—is to “sweep the Israeli public so much off their feet, that they come to see in Netanyahu a modern day David [emphasis added].” With October 7th anniversary drawing nigh, this necessity is becoming all the more exigent. Time is of great essence here; and an overwhelming military success is presumed a conditio sine qua non for Netanyahu’s political survival.

 

Second, what do the political echelons in the United States who green-lighted this Israeli project during Netanyahu’s visit to the U.S. last July hope for Netanyahu to achieve? Simply put, to pave the way for an alternative route, one that would lay the foundation for either a casus belli by proxy with Russia, or an international condition that provides the U.S. with enough leverage for a quid pro quo exchange with an already triumphant Russia in Ukraine. Ironically, Netanyahu’s selling pitch was that “Operation Zelensky the Clown” can no longer be salvaged. 

 

 

Now, how could the Israeli-Hezbollah war unfold, and what highly probable regional repercussions could it bring about?

 

It is plain to the meanest intelligence that both Netanyahu and Hezbollah have burned their ships at the shore. The former cannot afford not to achieve his declared objective—that is, destroying his nemesis’ infrastructure and neutralizing the security threat it poses to Israeli settlers in the north. As for Hezbollah, left high to dry by its regional patron, Iran, the fight has gained an existential bearing, namely after the traumatizing assassination of its longtime general secretary, Hassan Nasrallah. Martyrdom is now the dulce et decorum outcome, given that utter deprivation of military capability means a profound and intolerable maiming of the group’s identity, creed, and status [emphasis added]. 

Moreover, it is critical to note that empty Iranian threats over the course of the past few months have nurtured and inflated Netanyahu’s ego as to how far he can go.

 

Scenario 1:

 

Israeli ground incursion into the Lebanese south is successful; wherein Israel completely destroys Hezbollah’s infrastructure and offensive military capability; stops there; and leaves Hezbollah’s fate to the international community. 

 

Under this scenario, Hezbollah is faced with two options. The first is total dismantlement as both military and political party. The second is to surrender its arms to the Lebanese government, abandon all geopolitical aspirations, severe all ties to regional and foreign powers (i.e. Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria), and continue to exist as a purely Lebanese political party subject to domestic and international oversight. 

 

In terms of survival, this could be the best possible outcome for Hezbollah, though I genuinely doubt that mere survival is anyhow an appealing end to the struggling and aggrieved party at this juncture [emphasis added]. We ought also to bear in mind that Nasrallah’s successor, Sayed Hashem Safieddine (who is allegedly assassinated too), does not share his predecessor’s pragmatic and cool-headed stance; which makes him more prone to confrontation. 

Scenario 2:

 

Israeli ground incursion into the Lebanese south is successful; wherein Israel completely destroys Hezbollah’s infrastructure and offensive military capability; yet occupies the southern territory of the country on grounds of security claims.

 

Here, Lebanon finds itself in an unenviable situation, with its territorial integrity violated by an aggressively expansionist and overwhelmingly powerful neighbor [emphasis added]. 

 

Upon Israeli occupation of the south, the international community may find the reinstatement of a Syrian mandate over the rest of the country a workable arrangement; despite that it will hilariously fall short of balancing the scale; and then of course there is the question of how acceptable is the person of the Syrian President to both, the Lebanese political echelons and the international community. 

 

Scenario 3 (World War III, or Peace Through War (a Russo-Western quid pro quo exchange)):

 

The third scenario is the most daunting to the peoples and governments of the Levant, but that does not make it any less likely to manifest.

 

Israeli ground incursion into the Lebanese south is successful; wherein Israel completely destroys Hezbollah’s infrastructure and offensive military capability; Iran decides to avenge its Lebanese and Palestinian allies to save face; and Netanyahu chooses to utilize the IDF’s momentum and Israel’s technological and military superiority to its regional counterparts to press on. How will he proceed? 

 

Though it lacks the numbers in military personnel, Israel can simultaneously overwhelm its archenemies—Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Yemen—with missile attacks and precision strikes; carrying out a series of assassinations whilst targeting critical infrastructure; practically forcing them to capitulate. 

 

In this regard, it is also noteworthy that Turkey, a NATO member and regional power, performed  World War drills couple months ago. 

 

Such scenario has two and only two possible outcomes: the first is a Third World War; and the second is peace through a quid pro quo exchange between the super-powers, i.e. the United States and Russia [emphasis added].

 

The first outcome has been explicated by myself and many others ad nauseam. Israel attacks Syria and Iran, the U.S. lends Israel some firepower via its aircraft carriers and military bases across the region, hence, Russia is dragged into the war to save its regional allies and partners. 

 

As to the second outcome, and here it is worth reiterating, given the tragic hopelessness and fruitlessness of “Operation Zelensky the Clown,” the United States—especially U.S. democrats—is in dire need to score some international gains to save face and retain its clout. Such being the case, the United States will present Putin with a simple and satisfactory proposition that can plant the seeds of peace betwixt Russia and the West with neither party losing pride nor face. This proposition is a simple quid pro quo exchange, wherein the West will forsake Ukraine to Russia, if the latter forsakes the Middle-East to the United States. The United States may further add some sauce to the recipe to make it more palatable to Russia; in which case Russia’s contracts for the Syrian ports will be honored till their expiration.

 

We will soon see which scenario manifests into an actuality…

 

Related Publications: “Trump’s Assassination Attempt, Netanyahu U.S. Visit, and Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony: Destroying the Possibility of Peace;” “Regardless… War Is Coming…” “Regardless… War Is Coming… [Part II];”  and, “How Could the Middle-East Be the End of NATO: A Scenario.”