How Could the Middle-East Be the End of NATO: A Scenario

A regional war is now brewing over the Middle-East. The dimensions of its scope, nevertheless, have not yet visibly manifested. These past few days, Israel has targeted the top command of both Hamas and Hezbollah—successfully assassinated the chief of the former’s politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran; and the second person in command of the latter, Fuad Shukr, in the Southern Suburb of Beirut. Israel has also announced the killing of Mohammed Deif, one of the masterminds behind the October 7th attacks, in an air strike on July 13. Both Hezbollah and Iran vowed retaliation for the assassinations, whilst Hamas reasserted its steadfastness. 

Social media platforms have been circulating news of Iran’s state TV announcing that, “in coming hours, the world will witness extraordinary scenes and very important developments,” (George Papadapoulos, via X) earlier this morning. 

 

🚨BREAKING: 🇮🇷 Iranian state TV says “in coming hours, the world will witness extraordinary scenes and very important developments.”

— George Papadopoulos (@GeorgePapa19) August 2, 2024

 

As per RT Arabic page on Instagram, “Iran and her allies will wage a broad scaled attack on Israel within the next 72 hours;” which U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin has already cautioned against, on the day of Haniyeh’s assassination, reiterating the United States’ commitment to Israel’s security and her resolve to defend Israel were she attacked [emphasis added]. 

 

 

And some five days ago, on July 29, a ‘war of words’ ensued between Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, after Erdogan threatened a direct Turkish intervention in Gaza, whilst Katz dared him to fulfill his threats—insinuating that Erdogan will suffer Saddam Hussein’s fate, should he make genuine his threats (“War of Words As Erdogan Says Turkey Could Intervene in Israel’s War on Gaza”).

 

Erdogan’s hints of intervention came after Turkish-Syrian relations have moved towards promising rapprochement and normalization over the course of recent months, that could end in a face to face meeting with his Syrian counterpart Bashar Al-Assad. The Syrian President has visited Russia last month, to discuss regional developments and challenges with Vladimir Putin. It goes without saying, that the prospects of an imminent regional war was on the agenda. 

 

Almost two and a half years through the Ukraine War, Zelensky the Clown has failed to light the fuse of a European war; which would inevitably become a NATO-Russia war. During his latest visit to the United States, however, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made the case for a decisive regional war that would involve Iran and eventually embroil Russia; given that the West would come to Israel’s aid, that is [See “Trump’s Assassination Attempt, Netanyahu U.S. Visit, and Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony: Destroying the Possibility of Peace”]. 

 

It is no secret that warmongers in the West have for long craved and sought an all out war with Russia. And undoubtedly, Netanyahu’s scheme fell like a love song on their hearts and ears. But to their consternation, Erdogan’s threats to Israel makes the Middle-East route to a war with Russia fundamentally and dialectically dilemmatic for the United States and NATO at large.

 

Should Erdogan wish to mount a ground assault on Israel, Turkish troops need to mobilize via Syria. Syria, for her part, given her regional and International patron states’ involvement, Iran and Russia, will not hesitate to grant Turkish forces safe and clear passage. The dilemma for NATO is that Israel enjoys a special-status with the alliance while Turkey is a member state [emphasis added]. It is dialectical because the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security and defense is ironclad, yet Turkey’s intervention and the subsequent Israeli response thereto invokes NATO’s Article 5—eo ipso obliging the U.S., the UK, and other NATO members to defend Turkey. Simultaneously defending the two warring parties presents a practical impossibility, even for the United States. 

 

Accordingly, if the U.S. assists Israel against Turkey, not only will that mean that the United States has abandoned its NATO colleague, but it also signifies an act of aggression against the latter [emphasis added]. Should that come to pass, what would be the position of other NATO members—having then seen the biggest NATO member stabbing one of their colleagues in the back? Will the alliance fall apart; or will member states be indifferent and treat the whole thing as an anomalous mishap?

 

Furthermore, upon such eventuality, the West will be forced to revisit that old ‘Eastern Question’: What to do about the Ottoman Empire (now Turkey); and where does Turkey belong—with the East or the West?

 

In fine, the dismantling of NATO can occur in so many ways, but to be the result of a conflict in the Middle-East is entirely in Turkey’s hands [emphasis added]. If an exchange of attacks takes place between Turkey and Israel, things can very quickly and illogically spiral out control. Contrariwise, if Erdogan is simply paying a lip service to the Muslim world, then an alliance breakup for the Middle-East will be a highly unlikely scenario.

 

 

So, which is it going to be Erdogan?

 

 

 

 

Related Publications: “Trump’s Assassination Attempt, Netanyahu U.S. Visit, and Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony: Destroying the Possibility of Peace;” and, “Regardless… War Is Coming…”

 

 

Reference

“Institute for the Study of War.” Institute for the Study of War, www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-1-2024.

Parry, Andie, et al. “Institute for the Study of War.” Institute for the Study of War, 1 Aug. 2024, www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-1-2024.

“War of Words As Erdogan Says Turkey Could Intervene in Israel’s War on Gaza.” 29 July 2024. www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/29/hitler-vs-saddam-war-of-words-as-turkey-threatens-to-enter-israel.