In the previous article, building on Erdogan’s threats of intervention in Gaza, I have envisaged an escalation scenario wherein the outbreak of a direct Israeli-Turkish war would force on NATO members three options. The first, NATO would invoke article 5, obliging the United States, the UK and other member states to come to Türkiye’s aid; which is close to impossible, given the US ironclad commitment to Israeli security and the latter’s special status with the alliance. The second, the United States would enter the fray on Israel’s side; thereby breaking ranks with the alliance, and putting other member states in an unenviable position—they would either have to honor article 5 or remain indifferent. And the third, the alliance would be dismantled to save face for the member states.
In light of recent developments in the Turkish domestic political sphere and the Syrian theater, an imminent Israeli-Turkish clash seems to be inevitable [emphasis added].
Today, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Syrian Interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa are said to sign a strategic military cooperation and defense treaty; according to which, Türkiye will establish three military bases on Syrian soil (one of which will reportedly be built in Daraa, in the Syrian south) and provide training to the nascent Syrian army.
Upon Assad’s fall, Israeli officials have warned time and again that any military presence in the Syrian south would constitute a direct threat to Israel’s security, and would be dealt with decisively.
Hitherto, Israeli-Turkish feud in Syria has been limited to the confinements of proxy war. Israel has been backing the Kurds in the Northeastern region against the Turkish-backed NSA, and vowing protection for the Druze in the south in the face of aggression from the bedouin tribes, supported by Turkish-sponsored HTS.
Conspicuously, both countries have taken actions that pushed them to the precipice of direct confrontation. The whole situation could suddenly erupt!
Furthermore, it should be plain to the meanest intelligence that Erdoğan is now a cornered beast, on domestic and international levels.
On Tuesday March 25, 2025, in a commemorative function of Greece Independence Day at the White House, the Greek Orthodox Archbishop handed President Trump a holy cross and proclaimed that the latter “reminded him” of Emperor Constantine—the Byzantine Emperor and the eponym of Constantinople. Indisputably, this was a direct diplomatic blow served to Erdoğan.
Further adding to his vexation, France and other European nations have voiced concerns vis-à-vis Turkish democracy and political liberty upon the imprisonment of Turkish opposition leader and Istanbul (Constantinople) Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
And naturally, cornered beasts tend to act upon the maxim “après nous le déluge.” That is to say, the dead man’s button becomes their only viable recourse [emphasis added].
For Erdoğan, this button is establishing the aforementioned military bases in Syria to provoke Israeli aggression.
Should he come through on this treaty and Israel responds as anticipated, my wager is that Türkiye would fail to invoke NATO’s article 5. More precisely, the United States would pull out of NATO and European countries would follow suit; ergo, the alliance would fall apart; even prior to Erdoğan’s efforts of conceiving an European army come to fruition. Needless to say, Erdoğan wouldn’t find help in Moscow, either [emphasis added]. In fine, Türkiye would have to stand on its own.
Consequently, and most likely simultaneously, Greece would pursue its rightful claims to Cyprus and Constantinople—for which it would receive full European and Israeli support, if not American support as well. As such, Türkiye would lose one of its most vibrant metropolises and economic hubs. Inexorably, the loss of Istanbul would surely have a spillover effect on the Kurdish and Alewite regions.
In a nutshell, a direct Israeli-Turkish war would be of such magnitude as to bring the end of the modern Turkish state as we know it.
And that, is how the Middle-East could be the end of NATO…
Related Publications: “The Scramble for Syria: A Scenario;” “How Could the Middle-East Be the End of NATO: A Scenario;” “The New Middle-East: Syria, Gaza, and New Maps [Part I];” and, “The New Middle-East: Syria, Gaza, and New Maps [Part II].”
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