If it comes down to one living person whom the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) should summon as a special guest of honor for counsel at this critical hour, it must needs be—and cannot be no other than—the renowned Australian historian Christopher Clark: the author of “The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914.” For it appears as though the lessons laid out therein have been forgotten in less than a decade.
Treading the same path as European Empires of last century, today’s great powers trust in their perceptions and presume that they can unmistakably identify a casus belli—not knowing that their great moment of epiphany would come at some point during the war: that what they thought was a just cause for war, really wasn’t; and that they have had unpardonably brought down an unprecedented destruction upon the world on the basis of a whim (for pride or face)—or a reflex of anxiety, at best—before man and God.
Recently, newspapers, alongside other media, have been beating the drums of imminent war; or, to put it moderately, flashy headlines of inevitable escalation between Russia and the West over Ukraine. Like fortunetellers, their primary concern is to take credit for foretelling the future first [emphasis added]—accounting for no consequences that their content might set in motion.
But the truth of the matter is this:
Notwithstanding how alarming certain démarches (such as military drills, maneuvers, and sanctions, etc.) may seem to be, they remain within the bounds of peace. Even covert escapades. The probability that operations of this nature (i.e. clandestine) might instigate an all out war is infinitesimal, given that they are deterring undertakings per se; that is to say, their great and chief end has always been to avert the eventuality of war and maintain the peace. [see, “Wrongfully Vilified Peacemakers: A Case for Intelligence Indispensability for the Preservation of Peace;” and for more details on intelligence work to preserve the peace during the Cold War, download my book for free from Apple Books, “U.S.-Russian Exceptionalism: Intelligence, MAD, and Détente”]
What keeps me up at night, however, are statements flowing in similar vein as this one coming from the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, “Ukraine will also continue to work actively with partners to implement a comprehensive package to deter Russia from a new wave of war in Europe, which has already begun,” (Rankin, et al.).
Portraying Russia as a warmongering state lacks any factual foundation. If anything, Russia has been provoked continually over the course of recent months, in response to which she undertook precise and limited actions aimed at preventing further escalation. It is, as it was, never a question of whether Russia could overrun Ukraine in matter of days; rather, wether a comedian who rose to the pinnacle of power in Ukraine will succeed at getting under Putin’s skin, and incidentally set World War III afoot.
As a matter of fact, one only needs to listen to President Putin’s plenary speech at the 18th annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club last October (to which I have made several references in my writings so far) to be assured—without a shadow of doubt—that Russia’s compass points toward peace, not war.
Nevertheless, the real peril springs from the rhetoric all parties have recently adopted—namely, the romanticization of their notion of casus belli; and, the fantasized glory that would accompany going to war consequently. Such was the universal sentiment vis-á-vis the First World War, then dubbed the Great War—ironically thought to be the war to end all wars. And this romantic rhetoric is nothing but a heinous apparition of that dark epoch of human history. It was Voltaire who had once observed, “It is sad that often, to be a good patriot, one must be the enemy of the rest of mankind.”
Constructive patriotism is sacred and sublime, no doubt; as it is centered on rendering an untiring devotion to the advancement of one’s national interests. Contrariwise, destructive patriotism is one where a nation’s interests could only be advanced at the expense of others, or their destruction—in a word, by means of initiating a war. Beware, for destruction never moves in a single direction!
As talks remain on schedule, whilst all parties have reason to be nervous, temperance is much needed—especially with respect to the tone and narrative exchanged by interlocutors. The task, once again, falls foremost upon intelligence apparatuses. To keep everyone informed in a timely fashion; to devise every ounce of their considerable experience to reconcile antagonists on individual and state levels; and, above all else, to sustain communication channels at all times. The fate of the world depends on this.
Gentlemen, be not mistaken! The similitude of the present international scene to that of the years which led up to the First World War is striking. The world’s great powers are highly interdependent now as they were back then. They all have had some recent improvements with respect to their strategic capabilities. And, worst of all, they have all formulated their ultimatums and turned romantic [much emphasis added here] in the manner they conduct themselves on the international stage.
In fine, if there is one chief take away from that ingenious historical account of the First World War (“The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914”), it would be that pinpointing the casus belli for that war is entirely impossible. All powers had confused the shot at Sarajevo (the trigger) for the cause. They all fell victim to their inner romanticism, and sinned unforgivably against mankind.
Having all that said, I humbly beseech decision-makers not to yield nor succumb to that diabolic voice, which is currently whispering hymns of romance for war in their ears!
Reference
Rankin, Jennifer, et al. “Russia Threatens Military Deployment to Cuba and Venezuela As Diplomacy Stalls.” The Guardian, 13 Jan. 2022, www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/13/russia-says-talks-with-nato-over-ukraine-are-hitting-a-dead-end. Accessed 18 Jan. 2022.
