The New Middle-East: Syria, Gaza, and New Maps [Part I]

People of and from [emphasis added] the Middle-East think they have a good and factual understanding of what took place in Syria — but they really don’t. The 14 fruitless years of civil war and revolution did not bear fruit by a miraculous divine intervention overnight. Neither was it the perseverance of the people that wore out the Assad regime and the standing Syrian Arab Army. 

 

It was a series of less than ten communications; the first of which was a phone call, then President-elect Trump made to the Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday 7 November, 2024—setting in motion a series of events that would topple Assad in a dramatic blitz operation, that would last for less than a fortnight.

 

Anyway, let’s not dwell on the past. So, to wrap it up, Assad thought he could continue to be president indefinitely via bluffing, deception, and feigned cooperation; whilst evading to render any real services to regional and international powers. He thought there was no alternative, and clung to the ‘let somebody else do it’ response, until they actually brought in that ‘somebody else’.

 

[Note: Assad was not sold out by his allies—by his subordinates, yes—but not his allies. He simply wasn’t willing to do any real work anymore. Hence, he was laid off. The Russians upheld their part by transferring him, along his family, to safety.]

 

The question now remains: What does the future hold for the Middle-East, and the Levant in particular? Especially after President Trump’s remarks on Gaza and PM Netanyahu’s comments on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia vis-à-vis the two states solution. 

 

The truth of the matter is this:

After the Israeli incursion into the Lebanese South, I wrote, “Middle-East: War Is at Hand, What Is Next,” wherein I presented three highly probable scenarios for Israel’s operation against Hezbollah. Few days afterwards, I designated the third scenario as the inevitable outcome. Titled, “World War III, or Peace Through War (a Russo-Western quid pro quo exchange),” it unfolds as follows:

 

“Such scenario has two and only two possible outcomes: the first is a Third World War; and the second is peace through a quid pro quo exchange between the super-powers, i.e. the United States and Russia [emphasis added].

The first outcome has been explicated by myself and many others ad nauseam. Israel attacks Syria and Iran, the U.S. lends Israel some firepower via its aircraft carriers and military bases across the region, hence, Russia is dragged into the war to save its regional allies and partners. 

As to the second outcome, and here it is worth reiterating, given the tragic hopelessness and fruitlessness of “Operation Zelensky the Clown,” the United States—especially U.S. democrats—is in dire need to score some international gains to save face and retain its clout. Such being the case, the United States will present Putin with a simple and satisfactory proposition that can plant the seeds of peace betwixt Russia and the West with neither party losing pride nor face. This proposition is a simple quid pro quo exchange, wherein the West will forsake Ukraine to Russia, if the latter forsakes the Middle-East to the United States. The United States may further add some sauce to the recipe to make it more palatable to Russia; in which case Russia’s contracts for the Syrian ports will be honored till their expiration.”

 

 

In a recent interview with The Washington Post, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra revealed that the new Syrian authorities would allow Russia to keep its naval port at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia—given that “[they] get benefits for Syria out of [it], yes.” (Morris and Zakaria) 

 

This statement further corroborates my analysis and speculations. 

 

Sometime early November, I told my friends that the storm would brew over Syria after Lebanon, then the winds would carry its clouds to Jordan, then Iraq [emphasis added]. Everybody dismissed my prediction and had big smirks on their faces, all the while lecturing me on how Jordan is a long-standing ally of Israel. My response was, “It is not the political stance that puts Jordan on the storm’s trajectory, but the need for land.”

 

Now, President Trump made it clear that he intends to relocate Gazans to other countries, since his first day back in the Oval Office. The initial destination had been Indonesia, but then changed to regional neighbors—such as, Egypt and Jordan. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Arab and Muslim nations voiced their rejection and expressed their resentment towards Trump’s proposal, insisting on the two-states solution. Leaving no room for neither doubt nor contestation, President Trump announced, during his joint press conference with Bibi Netanyahu, that the United States intends to take over the Gaza Strip and ‘do a job with it too,’ (Holland, et al.) [emphasis added].

 

And just four days ago, Friday 7 February, while interviewing Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, anchor Yaakov Bardugo of Channel 14 TV network misspoke—confusing between a ‘Palestinian state’ and Saudi—but the former wittily corrected him with a fiery remark, “the Saudis can create a Palestinian state in Saudi Arabia; they have a lot of land over there,” (TOI Staff and Reuters) that gave the Saudis a severe jolt and stirred regional outrage and condemnation, since it implied infringement on Saudi sovereignty and violation of the kingdom’s territorial integrity. 

 

This may be too much to process for the average Middle-Easterner. So, what to make out of all of this?

Here is what’s going to happen…

Let’s start with Syria.

 

 

It is no secret that self-appointed Interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa has absolutely no regard for the aspirations of the Syrian people, and that he’s sedating the public with empty promises until he has fully consolidated power. What evidence do I have to substantiate this claim?

 

 

Well, he rarely addresses the Syrian people. He deliberately avoids employing the term democracy, or any variation thereof, in his speeches and interviews. He’s been keen to shut the intelligentsia in diaspora out of the transitional political process so far. Last but not least, he has dissolved the parliament, abolished the constitution, deferred elections for 4-5 years. And if all that is not enough, his General Security forces are making sure that all dissident voices are silenced in a timely manner, under operation codenamed “pursuit of regime remnants”.

 

With all due respect to the office he currently holds, yet there is a much bigger game in play than himself. 

 

I believe he’s become cognizant of that fact and is now seeking to shore up his position. Interim President Al-Sharaa has surely felt the presence of the King Maker [emphasis added]. 

 

Internally, he’s got a whole bundle of minorities issues to deal with. The constant persecution and extrajudicial executions against Alawites at the hands of HTS security forces and affiliates have not stopped as of yet. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast region are under the aegis of the international coalition and have far more advanced weaponry and superior military technology to the nascent “Syrian Army”. The Druze have turned  Al-Sweida governorate into a well-fortified autonomous enclave in the south, until a constitution is drafted; in addition to requesting a decentralized form of governance—adding their voice to that of their Kurdish compatriots. Moreover, RFE/RL’s designated ‘threat to Syria’s new rulers,’ Ahmad Al-Awda  (“Russia’s man in the south”) (Sharifi)—the first man to enter Damascus upon Assad’s fall [emphasis added]—is another thorn in Al-Sharaa’s southern side. The Christian community, despite suffering heinous persecution at the hands of undisciplined jihadists, continue to call for a national dialogue to build a modern Syrian state that fulfills the aspirations of all spectrums of the Syrian society. 

 

Therefore, it is much easier and far more convenient for Al-Sharaa to draw his legitimacy and power from the external political body than the internal one. As such, we’ve seen Syrian state forces sweeping the Syrian-Lebanese borders, in an attempt to cut off Hezbollah’s supply routes and thereby gain some regional and international political capital and favor.

 

All of the above has perhaps become common knowledge; but one needs to set up the context before delving in the particulars. 

 

Hitherto, all the talk about Al-Sharaa’s imminent removal off of the United States terror list and the lift of sanctions is an unadulterated nonsense. One has to give him credit, nonetheless, for his relentlessness efforts. The man is really trying. But, like I said before, there are far greater powers and bigger plans in play than his person and ambitions—even the statehood of Syria as we know it [emphasis added].

 

Syria has already been partitioned in terms of spheres of influence, and that is something everyone knows. Cartographically, its fate has not yet been sealed! But even if it stays in one piece—which is highly unlikely, sadly—it will be a loose and unstable confederacy at best. Right now, the country is like a pliable piece of dough in the hands of a pizzaiolo. 

In case Al-Sharaa does not reach an agreement with SDF, the Druze, and Al-Awda; nor succeeds to reassure Alawites and Christians of their freedom of faith and freedom from persecution, in order to have their vote of confidence; the country will be dissected into ethnoreligious cantons. The Kurds will maintain their autonomy east of the Euphrates, so will the Druze in the south (Al-Sweida may even be annexed to Israel); Al-Awda and Al-Sharaa will vie for dominion over the predominantly sunni governorates in the center and south; the fate of the Syrian Coast is capricious, with Turkish annexation looming in the horizon; finally, Turkiye will have the Syrian north. 

The pressing question at present is: What will happen when we factor-in international and regional developments?

 

Both Egypt and Jordan have categorically rejected taking in deported Palestinians—even on temporary basis. But President Trump is resolved on this. Egyptian and Jordanian concerns are well-founded. Egypt has had its own strife with islamic-bred terrorism in the Sinai desert in recent years. And Jordan fears that an inflow of Palestinians with unbreakable links to islamic military factions, many of which are designated terror groups [emphasis added], would surely jeopardize domestic security and peace; not to mention of course the possibility of a takeover attempt of the country itself. 

 

King Abdullah II of Jordan may be bailed out by Saudi and other GCC countries—after all, the gulf monarchs wouldn’t want Jordan to set the precedent for monarchical collapse in the region. Egypt may propose an alternative to let itself off the hook [emphasis added]. That alternative cannot be Lebanon, for its European patron, France, would never allow Palestinians to swarm across the country to pillage and plunder the place. Which eventually leaves us with Syria.

 

That is correct. Al-Sharaa will be requested to take in a substantial influx of Palestinians or forget about ruling a unified Syria, as it currently lies on the map. After all, he’s already taken in Uyghurs, Albanians, and others—why not Palestinians too? 

Syria is the secretly chosen alternative home for the Palestinians . 

 

To elucidate the matter further, neither President Trump nor PM Netanyahu mind the distribution of Palestinians across several (mainly Arab) countries. These countries themselves, however, would not have them, and would push for Syria to take them all [emphasis added]. Al-Sharaa, a born pragmatic with a fixation on power, would definitely accede to the bidding of the bigger sharks in the tank. His only hope then for keeping the country patched together would be, to direct the inflow of international financial aid and investment that is meant for Palestinian housing into the Syrian Desert, or Al Badiya, in order to preserve the Syrian social fabric.

 

Thereupon, the U.S. Central Command might withdraw U.S. personnel from Syria and redeploy them into Gaza. That, however, is not a termination of the international coalition in Syria per se—nor is it an abandonment of SDF. The Europeans, namely the French and Germans, would subsequently take up the lead in Syria; eo ipso making Europe relevant again on the international stage, in a manner that is more independent of the United States of America. 

 

But then again, the French would quickly realize thereafter that the only means to prevent or stop an all out ethnoreligious civil war in Syria—as Al-Sharaa would fail to contain the Palestinians in the Syrian Desert—would be to break up the country into ethnoreligious cantons; or convert the form of governance to a confederacy, under the condition of keeping the military capability of each federation in check—as not to surpass the classification of advanced police force. 

 

In fine, the conclusion remains the same…

 

 

 

Related publications: “Trump’s Assassination Attempt, Netanyahu U.S. Visit, and Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony: Destroying the Possibility of Peace;” “Regardless… War Is Coming…” “Regardless… War Is Coming… [Part II];”  and, “How Could the Middle-East Be the End of NATO: A Scenario;” “Middle-East: War Is at Hand, What Is Next?” “From the Middle-East to East Asia: The Orchestration of a World War Face-off ;” and, “The Scramble for Syria: A Scenario.”

Reference

Holland, Steve, et al. “Reuters.com.” Reuters.com, www.reuters.com/world/trump-netanyahu-set-pivotal-talks-middle-east-agenda-2025-02-04/.

Morris, Loveday, and Zakaria Zakaria. “Syria could allow Russia to keep its bases, new defense minister says.” The Washington Post, 6 Feb. 2025, www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/.

Sharifi, Kian. “Who Is Ahmed Al-Awda, The Man Who Could Be A Threat To Syria’s New Rulers?” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, 17 Jan. 2025, www.rferl.org/a/ahmad-al-awda-syria-leadership-threat-islamists-uae-ties/33279067.html.

TOI Staff, and Reuters. “Netanyahu says Saudis could ‘create a Palestinian state’ in their own territory.” Times of Israel, www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-says-saudis-could-create-a-palestinian-state-in-their-own-territory/. Accessed 9 Feb. 2025.