The New Middle-East: Syria, Gaza, and New Maps [Part II]

Not much of a surprise to the informed spectator, French President Emmanuel Macron called on Syria’s interim government to cooperate with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), at the Paris Conference on Syria, last Thursday 13 February, 2025. “Macron’s comments [came] amid uncertainty over the United States’ commitment to the region,” (Petrequin, et al.) — and Syria, in particular.

Paris Conference on Syria — French President Emmanuel Macron (left) greeting Syrian Transitional Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani (right) during the International Conference on Syria at the Ministerial Conference Center in Paris on 13 February 2025. (Image: Ludovic Marin / AP)

Something I already anticipated in part I of this series, two days prior to the Paris Conference:

“… [T]he U.S. Central Command might withdraw U.S. personnel from Syria and redeploy them into Gaza. That, however, is not a termination of the international coalition in Syria per se—nor is it an abandonment of SDF. The Europeans, namely the French and Germans, would subsequently take up the lead in Syria; eo ipso making Europe relevant again on the international stage, in a manner that is more independent of the United States of America.”

Nevertheless, that senile snake of Türkiye, Erdogan, just won’t let the Kurds be.

[NOTE: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are ‘Kurdish-led,’ not a purely Kurdish military force. They have several other minority groups integrated into their ranks, such as: Armenians, Yezidis, Assyrians, and others.]

Rumors have been circulating of a secret proposal Erdogan has made to Bibi Netanyahu, suggesting the deportation of over half-a-million (the number is somewhere between 600,000 and 700,000) Palestinians from Gaza to the Northeast region of Syria [emphasis added].

This falls in line with my earlier presumption, that the idea of Syria as an alternative (or, one of the alternative) home(s) for Palestinians has been the subject of consideration for some time now. And even more so with my prediction of Jordan getting cut some slack—courtesy of the Gulf states—while Egypt’s El-Sisi is left with no choice but to offer a surrogate sacrifice to let his country off the hook; in spite of them being “officially” recalcitrant vis-à-vis the deportation/relocation project.

Hence, the postponing of the emergency Arab summit on Gaza to 4 March for “logistics purposes”—that is, to allow the Turkish efforts ample time to come to fruition.

Was it perhaps El-Sisi who whispered such an idea in Erdogan’s ear? I don’t know…

One thing for certain though, and I’ve said it before, “neither President Trump nor PM Netanyahu mind the distribution of Palestinians across several (mainly Arab) countries.” As a matter of fact, Arab and regional states are given total freedom to decide amongst themselves on the intake quotas of the deported Palestinians. But, what’s in it for Erdogan to import Palestinians into the Northeast region of Syria?

Since the fall of Assad, Turkish-backed factions in northern Syria (aka Syrian National Army (SNA)) were not able to make any gains on the ground in their offensive against the SDF. Then came President Trump’s announcement of taking over the Gaza Strip; which involves the ‘relocation’ of Gazans; and, voilà, an opportunity presents itself to Erdogan.

What kind of opportunity?

During the 1970s, displaced Palestinians attempted to take over two neighboring countries that gave them shelter—Jordan and Lebanon. One may also note that they instigated a civil war in the latter. Ergo, Türkiye may have hopes that Gazan incomers would have the propensity for military action in Syria.

After all, it is no secret that a considerable percentage of adult Gazan males are either active Hamas militants, or potential recruits; and Erdogan has the perfect use for them, to advance his own agenda in Syria [emphasis added].

Let there be no doubt, Erdogan is resolved to end the Kurdish cause; and he won’t leave unmobilized any resource towards that end!

Erdogan’s envisaged relocation of Palestinians to Northeastern Syria

Having that said, many of those Gazans are likely to have had some form of military training and would immediately enter the fray on Türkiye’s behalf on the SNA’s side against the SDF; or, they would be willing to receive training and engage in military action on behalf of their Turkish benefactor.

In a nutshell, and to put it in plain English words, Erdogan is trying to strike an extraction deal for Hamas, where he relocates the Palestinian militia to Northeastern Syria to fight the Kurds for him.

Alas! Whatever the outcome may be, it cannot be in Syria’s favor…

Reference

Petrequin, Samuel, et al. “France’s Macron Urges Syria’s Interim Government to Join a US-led Coalition Fighting Extremists.” AP News, 13 Feb. 2025, apnews.com/article/syria-conference-trump-aid-b0d50283d7ebd28020790d212df2ad44.