The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict is one of the most intricate, protracted, and ethnic-based historical conflicts. The historical account thereof is laboriously extensive, and beyond the scope of this writing. Notwithstanding, it is imperative for any conscientious writer—with a grain of decency sown into his soul—to remind the reader, on this occasion, that Armenians are among the most oppressed and longest persecuted ethnic minorities known in modern history. They were brutally massacred in the late nineteenth century (1894 – 1897), alongside Assyrians, at the hands of the Ottomans; where approximately some 100,000 – 300,000 Armenians and Assyrians had perished. Not two decades had passed thenceforth, when Armenians suffered the infernal horror of genocide (1915 – 1916). “There were approximately 1.5 million Armenians living in the [Ottoman] Empire. At least 664,000* and possibly as many as 1.2 million died during the genocide. Armenians call these events Medz Yeghern (the great crime) or Aghet (catastrophe).”
* As with all genocides, there’s no exact figure of deaths; and death tolls are usually understated.
In recent years, Azerbaijan has reignited the dormant territorial dispute—since the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988 – 1994)—over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and mounted an offensive campaign against Armenia on the morning of 27 September 2020. The war lasted 44 days; hence, the designated name, the “44-Day War,” in both Armenia and Azerbaijan (“2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War”). However, the region has not known sustainable peace since, with recurring skirmishes along the borderline and another major clash in May 2021(“2021–2022 Armenia–Azerbaijan Border Crisis”).
This month, storm clouds brewed over Artsakh once again; concurrent with an ever intensifying Russian-Ukrainian war over the Donbass region and the Crimean peninsula. For an instant, the spectator might fall prey to the specious impression that the latest Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia, beginning on 12 September 2022, has been driven by mere opportunism —“seizing the moment,” kind of escapade—to capture a long-sought terrain, the Republic of Artsakh (formerly the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic), an integral part of historic Armenia [emphasis added], exploiting great-powers preoccupation with the Ukraine conundrum.
Nevertheless, there’s more geopolitical complexity pertaining to the situation in Armenia than meets the eye.
In the case where an all-out NATO-Russia war ensues, Turkey won’t have the luxury of standing on the sidelines, albeit Erdogan’s recently cautious flirtation with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. It won’t really matter, then, what her preferences may be; given that she’s the second largest contributor of manpower to NATO (second to none but the United States); Turkey has as many as 445,000 personnel under NATO command; and, needless to mention her legal obligation to honor Collective Defence, under the fifth article of the NATO founding treaty, lest it suffers dire consequences.
Just last Tuesday, Politico ran an article citing Erdogan asking Putin to give Crimea back to Ukraine. That request, in itself, is quite telling. Furthermore, one cannot fail to perceive the apparition of the Crimean War (1853 – 56) that such request summons to the fore of one’s conscious mind. The Russian President, on the other hand, has made it clear on several occasions that Crimea is nonnegotiable. Simply put, Russia won’t accept to suffer losing another Crimean War [emphasis added].
Having mentioned the Crimean War (1853 – 56), what strategic military lesson could be drawn thence? To keep it simple, we can infer from the map below that Russia would have to launch a counteroffensive campaign through the Armenian terrain. That being said, Turkey would require the assistance of its regional ally, Azerbaijan, in her race to capture Armenia, before Russian forces are able to mobilize through.
In a nutshell, historical wisdom suggests that, we need to acquire a broad contextual view of a general NATO-Russia war on multiple theaters, with Crimea at its center. It should be plain to the meanest intelligence that every weapon system sent to and installed in Azerbaijan is not pointed at Armenia, as such—so much it is directed against Russia; given the State of Imminent Danger of War (SIDW) overshadowing Europe. Conspicuously, therefore, Azerbaijan is being used as a pawn by the West to neutralize a possible Russian offensive, or counteroffensive, from the Armenian front, should the worst come to pass. Taking this into consideration, the preservation of Armenia’s territorial integrity is paramount for Russia to prevail in a new war with the intent to secure the Crimean peninsula.
In fine, Armenia is being sacrificed at the altar of great-powers’ geopolitics, ONCE MORE! AND THE WORLD IS DEAD SILENT ABOUT IT!
Recommended reading: “Sleepwalking back to 1914: A State of Imminent Danger of War?”
Reference
“2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.” Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia, Wikimedia Foundation, Inc, 21 Sept. 2022, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war. Accessed 26 Sept. 2022.
“2021–2022 Armenia–Azerbaijan Border Crisis.” Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia, Wikimedia Foundation, Inc, 20 Sept. 2022, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021–2022_Armenia–Azerbaijan_border_crisis. Accessed 26 Sept. 2022.
